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Recent observations

Tad Carlucci's picture

Examination of the short-term trends over the past couple of weeks leads me to two observations. None of these are particularly unexpected, but Charm suggested I post them nonetheless.

First, short-term demand is critically sensitive to customer expectations. This is seen by a huge swing in the short-term population trend leading up to the RFL event. My guess is customers expected some sort of major announcement at the event. Had population trends held at the peak level, they would have held almost (but not quite) steady. Unfortunately, no major announcement was forthcoming. As a result, the trend swung sharply downward. At present populations are dropping sharply; but this probably won't last for long and we'll soon return to the previous, steady rate of decline. We've seen similar bumps before, primarily related to 'sneak peak' comments.

Second, short-term demand is moderately sensitive to food prices. For the past several months, we've had two production days generally slowing the rate of decline in populations, and three days generally increasing it. The one-day food sale seems to have caused one of those 'up' days to shift toward being a 'down' day, and one of those 'down' days to shift toward being an 'up' day.

My feeling is that the strong sensitivity to customer expectation can be either a boon or a bane depending upon how it's used. If the company can 'get ahead' of expectations, avoiding the disappointment when those expectations are not fulfilled, much, if not all, of the decline in Meeroo populations could be averted. This does not mean they actually need to delivery .. just that they need to build expectations, and keep them high.

My other impression is that the moderate sensitivity to food prices can help. Given the wiggle seen following the recent sale, I would suggest experimenting with longer sale periods, more frequent sales, and, possibly, a permanent price decrease. The recent wiggle indicates there is a price/performance relationship for players and even moderate changes in prices can have a beneficial impact upon population trends.

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