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A theory on regard & mutation

Spyder Kamm's picture

This is my first post here after two months of lurking in these forums and breeding my own Meeroos. What I am about to describe below is a THEORY of mine, just a theory. I'm not making bold statements about how things work, I'm not saying you should all take what I describe as the actual truth, it's just a guess, a supposition, a theory. It is based on statements from Malevay Studios staff to be found throughout this site and from the observed breeding results of myself and others to date.

This theory will be of interest to you if:

a.) You don't believe (despite numerous statements to the contrary by the good folks from Malevay Studios) that regard (Personal and Meeroo) has any effect or is working as stated.

b.) You are happy to beleive regard has an effect on your breeding results, yet you harbour nagging doubts about it and wonder when it might kick in.

c.) You are perplexed about how getting deeper into the generation numbers can somehow surface more new traits, coats and species becuase logic dictates the further you go, the more distant those ancestral traits become.

d.) You think that new coats or traits are yet to be "switched on" by Malevay.

We've all seen many posting in these forums about how regard apprently isn't working, breeding isn't yielding expected new coats or species or ears fast enough, etc. A number of people have advanced their own theories to explain this, yet one thing missing from the majority of these theories (and rants) is that they fail to assume Malevay studios is telling the truth. They go to great lengths to try and explain what we see, without listening to what we are told.

We are told that regard DOES have an effect, that breeding down through generations IS beneficial, that EVERY Meeroo does indeed have the genetic potential to ultimately produce all the possible traits in its family line. Just because what we see happening with breeding results TO DATE doesn't appear to support these assertions does not mean they are untrue.

The theory I'm about to put forward takes into account what we've been told by Malevay AND the results (or lack of them!) we have seen to date. It synthesises the two to offer a possible explanation for how things might be working.

I beleive the process of mutation in meeroos could be a two step process. (Incidentally, when I say "mutation" you could also substitute the term "reaching back into ancestral genes" but I'll stick with the word "mutation" becuase it's easier to type!)

Step 1: Let's say a pair of our beloved meeroos are producing a nest. At the time of nest creation the regard of both parent Meeroos and that of the Meeroo's owners is taken into account to determine the odds of a mutation occurring. The higher the regard the better the odds of a mutation. Lets also say in this case, the combined regard was high so odds were very good and a mutation is going to occur for this new nest, yippee! This was step 1.

Step 2: A decision has to be made on what the results of the mutation are going to be. In other words, what will surface from the ancestral gene pool? It is this second step that forms the core of my theory.

Let us suppose for a moment that every Meeroo has a genetic value odds (chance) for every conceivable species, coat, trait etc in its electronic “DNA”. These values could, hypothetically, range from the low (1) to maximum (100). These genetic odds could be set in starter nests with some element of randomness but weighted toward the more common traits. As an example, lets take a small selection of possible coats and assign some "genetic odds" values to them for a plain little Winecoat Roo we got from a starter pack...

Winecoat Fawn Ursine Autumn Koi Snowpaw

90 90 50 20 4 2 MEEROO A (gen2)

In this example the odds of mutating into a winecoat are 90 in 256 (256 = 90+90+50+20+4+2)
The odds of a mutation producing an ursine are 50 in 256, a Koi 4 out of 256 and a snowpaw only 2 out of 256.

(Note that the numbers I used above are purely hypothetical and just assigned to illustrate the concept. Also, there are obvioulsy many more coats and other traits than these but I'm trying to keep the example small and easily digestible.)

Now suppose we pair Meeroo A above with Meeroo B who has the following "genetic odds"...

Winecoat Fawn Ursine Autumn Koi Snowpaw

90 100 30 5 1 7 MEEROO B (gen2)

We could add the odds from both parents together to determine the "genetic odds" that will apply to the new nest and also what gets passed to it..

Winecoat Fawn Ursine Autumn Koi Snowpaw

90 90 50 20 4 2 MEEROO A (gen2)
+
90 100 30 5 1 7 MEEROO B (gen2)
=
100 100 80 25 5 9 MEEROO C (gen3)

For the Winecoat and Fawn values above, anything over 100 (the maximum value) is rounded down to 100.

We can see now that the new nest (Meeroo C) has much improved odds for mutating as an Ursine as the Ursine odds almost match those for Winecoat and Fawn. The other 'rare' coats have improved slightly but still lag way behind.

Now we will pair Meeroo C up with Meeroo D and produce a new nest..

Winecoat Fawn Ursine Autumn Koi Snowpaw

100 100 80 25 5 9 MEEROO C (gen3)
+
95 90 40 8 1 5 MEEROO D (gen3)
=
100 100 100 33 6 14 MEEROO E (gen4)

For this nest, IF a mutation were to occurr (remember step 1), Winecoat, Fawn and Ursine all have equal and very good chance of appearing, Autumn is next likely followed by Snowpaw and lastly Koi.

Lets take this one generation further by pairing Meeroo E with Meeroo F...

Winecoat Fawn Ursine Autumn Koi Snowpaw

100 100 100 33 6 14 MEEROO E (gen4)
+
100 100 70 60 3 18 MEEROO F (gen4)
=
100 100 100 93 9 32 MEEROO G (gen5)

We are into generation 5 and a mutation is likely to produce a Winecoat, Fawn, Ursine or Autumn. Snowpaw is much stronger and there's definately hope it might appear in this family line. koi is still possible but unlikely.

Finally lets fast forward to generation 10. After adding in new Meeroos down through the generations all the Coat genetic odds have been increased by varying amounts so that many are now at, or close to, the maximum...

Winecoat Fawn Ursine Autumn Koi Snowpaw

100 100 100 100 45 90 MEEROO L (gen10)

... so a mutation in this genration could get pretty exciting with the previously hard to obtain coats now with vastly improved chances of appearing. In other words, as we move down through the generations the chances of any trait appearing gradually increase until they are on a par with so called 'starter' traits.

So to summarise the theory:

* Mutation might be a 2 step process

* Step one may use regard to determine the likelihood of a mutaton occurring by influencing the roll of the dice.

* Step 2 may use the "genetic odds" for the new nest, which are the sum of the parent's odds, to influnece the likelihood of any particular trait appearing as a mutation in the trait selection dice roll.

* Every trait could have a maximum value for it's "genetic odds" which will have the effect of allowing rarer traits to 'catch up' over succeeding generations.

* Every generation may contribute to increasing the trait odds of the next generation up to the maximum. Generational “genetic odds” may have a cumulative effect.

* The later the generation, the more favourbale the odds of getting any particular 'rare' trait may become.

* Current early generation nests possibly have very high genetic odds weighted in favour of the more common coats.

If you're still with me this far, we can see why the results of our high regard aren't showing up yet if my theory is close to the truth. Yes we are getting mutations ocurring but what is happening is that our nests are mutating into the currently high "genetic odds" traits we already know and love (hate!). In other words our high regard is causing nests to mutate, but they are mutating from Winecoats into Fawns and vice versa! We may even have Wincoats “mutating” as, errr, Winecoats (oh darn, better luck next time!).

Once again I want to stress this is only a theory that MIGHT explain the apparent disparity between what Malevay tell us and what we are seeing in our breeding results. It is also important to note that the above only applies to the incidence of a mutation. It does not describe how normal inheritance works because all the rules of Mendelian genetics can still operate happily where mutations in a new nest do not occur (when step 1 fails to trigger a mutation).

Finally The implications of this theory for you line breeders is worth pondering. If it were true, line breeding can get you to improving the odds of specific traits appearing very quickly (you'll keep adding high odds traits to high odds traits until they reach maximum). However, it will be at the expense of other low odds traits which will take longer to improve their odds significantly because you will keep adding low odds to low odds. These low odds traits would need many more generations to surface than for 'mixed blood" breeders. Mixed blood breeders would create a more even spread of "genetic odds" due to a wide diversity of randomly spread values coming from many bloodlines.

Now it's time for the forum feeding frenzy - you can shoot this theory down, decide to take it as a personal belief, do with it as you will. I don't really mind. My main purpose in proposing this was to counter the conspiracy theorists who seem to think there can be only sinister explanations for the disparity between Malevay statements about regard/breeding and observed results. I'm personally a little tired of suggestions that Malevay is (for reasons that would be totally nonsensical) deliberately misleading everyone or offering a bug ridden breeding model.

There is an old adage that says "there's more than one way to skin a cat" (poor cat!!). I think there is more than one way to explain what's happening with Meeroos than to jump on the "conspiracy/they're lying to us/it's broken" bandwagon.

I think the 'problem' with Meeroos (if you want to call it a problem, personally I don't see it that way) is that they require PATIENCE!

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